I was sitting with cold beer looking up at at Mont Blanc, not thinking about Gordon on holiday in Suffolk, when I got the text from my brother. Labour had lost the by-election in Glasgow to the SNP. Just ten days before, I saw two polls which showed a 12-14% point Labour lead which would translate into a much reduced majority of 4-5,000 but a safe win. So I had put the prospect of Government defeat out of my mind.
The loss easily ranks with other by-election disasters for a sitting Government, Orpington, Bermondsey, Govan, Newbury for those political anoraks.
It was a colosall political error for Brown to call the election in July. His idea was to get it out of the way ready for a re-launch in October. But what he failed to realise was how far the mo' (that's American for momentum) was against him. It was also extra-ordinarily foolish to reveal, a week before polling. a new Tory style strategy on benefit scroungers instituting a US welfare to work scheme and forcing the disabled into work. Glasgow East is one of the poorest seats in UK with very high levels of state dependence, how did they expect it to play?
It is as well for Gordon everyone is still on the beach but they'll be back by 1 September and then he can expect huge speculation about his future. He may be about as popular as rabies but his Prime Ministerialship is not immediately threatened. He is clearly not one of those resigning types, particularly as he doesn't feel he's got anything wrong.
The loss easily ranks with other by-election disasters for a sitting Government, Orpington, Bermondsey, Govan, Newbury for those political anoraks.
It was a colosall political error for Brown to call the election in July. His idea was to get it out of the way ready for a re-launch in October. But what he failed to realise was how far the mo' (that's American for momentum) was against him. It was also extra-ordinarily foolish to reveal, a week before polling. a new Tory style strategy on benefit scroungers instituting a US welfare to work scheme and forcing the disabled into work. Glasgow East is one of the poorest seats in UK with very high levels of state dependence, how did they expect it to play?
It is as well for Gordon everyone is still on the beach but they'll be back by 1 September and then he can expect huge speculation about his future. He may be about as popular as rabies but his Prime Ministerialship is not immediately threatened. He is clearly not one of those resigning types, particularly as he doesn't feel he's got anything wrong.
Party rules on unseating a leader are really tough, about half the delegates at the Manchester Conference in October would have to vote against him in a no-confidence motion. I can't see that happening especially as there is no very obvious successor although David Milliband and Alan Johnson would probably make a better fist of it than Gordon.
Labour MPs are also aware a new leader would bring a General Election and for many joining the queue of scroungers in the search for work. It may be the case constitutionally there is no requirement to hold an election simply because the ruling party have elected a new leader. But the public would not accept three Labour PMs in 18 months without a re-newing its mandate.
Gordon was of course chillin' with his homies in Southwold in the August drizzle. He looked even stiffer than John Major which I didn't think was possible. Who wears a jacket and patent leather shoes on the beach? Cameron as Boden man in bordies and a polo shirt made Gord look like he was from another era. There's a reason for that. He is.
Labour MPs are also aware a new leader would bring a General Election and for many joining the queue of scroungers in the search for work. It may be the case constitutionally there is no requirement to hold an election simply because the ruling party have elected a new leader. But the public would not accept three Labour PMs in 18 months without a re-newing its mandate.
Gordon was of course chillin' with his homies in Southwold in the August drizzle. He looked even stiffer than John Major which I didn't think was possible. Who wears a jacket and patent leather shoes on the beach? Cameron as Boden man in bordies and a polo shirt made Gord look like he was from another era. There's a reason for that. He is.
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