Hoping for the Best, Time and Time Again

I can't be the only one to notice the strong parallels between the posts of Deputy Prime Minister of Britain and Vice President of the US.
For most of the time, they are both considered a political joke whose daily attempt to restore some credibility ends in inevitable futility. When it is convenient to the boss, they perform their dutiful role as the leader's human shield. They are also expected to be the one who greets the Presidents of Botswana and Fiji when they come to visit.
Nick Clegg, as leader of the Liberal Democrat party and DPM, will always be, at best, the head of the third force of British politics. Given his catastrophic leadership since the 2010 election, he actually risks making his party less popular than the minor one issue party for UK Independence.
Clegg's speech this week to the party's annual yawnathon/conference was a pitiful display of a politician trying to carve out his relevance to the voting public. He continually shouted "be in no doubt!" referring to several dubious assertions on education and the environment where his party have been utterly dominated by their Tory overlords. He tried to portray himself as the linch-pin of the Coalition Government when his party just make up the numbers in Parliament, constantly voting against their longstanding Liberal principles and simultaneously embracing electoral oblivion.
The Liberal Democrats' unholy political pact with Cameron's Conservatives hardly helped him on the day and in two and a half years, has decimated his standing in the country. He has to simultaneously appear independent from and supportive of an administration which has made deeply painful cuts for the poorest while dropping tax for the top earners by 5p in the pound.
The policy decision he made which has damaged him most severely was to make a swift 180 on hiking tuition fees for students immediately after getting three quarters of them to vote for him on that singular promise. Clegg's acute and apparently growing political naivety was exposed cruelly when he decided to make a Youtube apology which was immediately lampooned in song.
It is a very long time since I heard such 'brass neck' statements in a speech - it was simply the most sensational nonsense. Apparently, only his party, "could be trusted on the economy and to deliver a fairer society." On the economy, UK is in its third quarter of a double-dip recession and the last two years have seem the most regressive policies on the poor since 1920s. To gauge how hard-hearted the Government is, it was only last week they showed their soft side by not removing benefits for those under going radio and chemotherapy for cancer.
Clegg's crowd were thoroughly polite in the face of this relentless barage of empty rhetoric, even making laughing sounds at Clegg's dismal attempts at humour. Clegg knows, we all know, that his party faces political wipeout at the 2015 election. His own leadership is utterly doomed - the speech sounded like he was reading his own obituary. Even one of his colleagues, Lord Smith, described Clegg as, "a cork bobbing in the waves."
Overall it must be better to be Veep than DPM. At least Joe Biden will get to keep his moniker of 'Mr Vice President' to allow him the semblance of respect after his days in office. Clegg will be no more than a footnote in one chapter of political handbook of how the desire for power destroys the weak.

Plebs...Morons... a Government Minister Said

When your job entails travelling all around Westminster or DC for that matter, then as a matter of necessity, you soon work out how to best handle the police and the security guards at every entrance and gate.

The one obvious lesson for lowly officials and Secretaries of State alike is, never try to hurry the police or challenge their authority. It is quite simple: let them do their job, be polite and respectful and everyone gets on fine.

So step forward, brand new Chief Whip to Her Majesty's Government, Andrew Mitchell who, given his lofty position, felt entitled to spit out various expletives and general abuse at the officers guarding the gates to Downing Street on Wednesday evening. The calls for his head are legion and has prompted his sudden disappearance from media scrutiny.

The circumstances of the case are depressingly ordinary. Mitchell sails around Whitehall on what appears to be his mum's bike. It was the police officers' refusal to let hm cycle merrily through the security gates which prompted Mitchell to bellow about them being, "f**king plebs" and "morons" who should "know their place". He also reportedly said, “Open this gate, I’m the Chief Whip. I’m telling you - I’m the Chief Whip and I’m coming through these gates.”
Mitchell's crude bullying tactics may work on his timid colleagues, MPs caught between satisfying their consciences or furthering their Parliamentary careers, but clearly should not be deployed so bluntly against public servants. His outburst also betrayed the snooty attitude of the higher echelons of the Conservative Party toward the 'lower classes', a politically toxic image which David Cameron has tried so hard to smother since he became leader in 2005. It gets considerably worse. Dave himself was forced to take a break from paying tribute to two WPCs in Manchester who had been killed in a gun and grenade attack this week, to publicly admonish his Chief Whip for disrespecting police officers. By any standard that's very bad politics.
Mitchell then compounded his guilt by denying the words reported in the Sun newspaper and so implied the officers were so unprofessional as to invent outright lies about a senior Government figure. His "half-hearted" apology implied he still expected subservience from the police and felt they should bow meekly to his version of the truth.
To their credit, both officers made written records of the incident at the time and are sticking to them. They may have been inspired to be so resolute following the savage cuts in policing introduced by the Coalition Government, resulting in considerably depleted pensions and contracting out of frontline work to questionable private companies such as G4S. John Tully, chairman of the Metropolitan Police Federation, said, “I know what the officers have told me, and what was reported … is absolutely what happened. I think Mr Mitchell needs to address his position and resign as soon as possible. "


The London Mayor, Boris Johnson, easily the most popular Conservative in the country, called last year for anyone caught swearing at a police officer to be arrested. That could still happen which would mean Cameron trawling for another Chief Whip next week. The Met police usually do not need much encouragment to make an arrest, for example they once banged up a student who inquired whether a policeman's horse was 'gay'.

If this wanton display of arrogance is sufficient to cost Mitchell his job then it will be one of the most careless ways ever to lose a senior Government position but given his boorish and reprehensible behaviour, it will be thoroughly deserved.

Margins of Error

“Opinion polls don’t tell the whole story…the only poll that counts is on election day….these polls certainly don’t reflect what the people have been saying to me up and down the land.”

These are all familiar lines used by losing candidates in the run up to their impending electoral defeat. I am not aware of Governor Romney using any of these phrases yet as his national numbers have stood up pretty well until recently. But the party conventions saw a slight widening of the President’s lead so confirming Romney’s lacklustre performance in Tampa and his inability to convince the American public he is worthy of their affection and trust.

But there are some abysmal poll numbers which cannot be explained away with a string of rationalisations. Obama leads Romney on women by about 15 points and Latinos by about 40. The lead among African Americans for the Democratic candidate has strengthened from 2008 when Senator McCain took a measly four points. Obama’s lead is total: 94-0.

Now in Europe there has been some polling about how we would receive a Romney Presidency. First, we in Europe understand 99 percent of the US population ‘could not give a rat’s a**e’ what France, Germany and Britain think and no country would be significantly swayed by an outsider’s view of their own domestic election. Nevertheless, the poll does illustrate how poorly Romney’s public image is playing to a wider audience. The average number in those countries who thought the former Governor would make the US be received more favourably was just four percent.

Romney’s rather dismal effort at diplomacy in his summer tour of UK, Poland and Israel culminated in denigrating the Olympic organisation in London just prior to its huge success. His effort to portray himself as Master of the Olympics showed flaky advice and even worse judgement. His tactless condemnation of Obama following death of the US Ambassador in Libya, without emphasising condolence, may linger disastrously for him.

As the numbers slowly run away from him, he is getting plenty of advice from fellow Republicans. Fox News analyst, Sarah Palin’s suggestion that he get “severely aggressive” with the President seems tactically idiotic. Romney, for all his faults, has got those upper middle class and blue collar white votes solidly in his base. Shouting louder at an audience he has already won over will not win him any more states on 6 November.

Even stirring greater antipathy to the incumbent by another slew of negative campaigning does not mean support transferring to the challenger. Certainly not at this late stage. These would be desperate options for a candidate feeling the pressure. And he hasn’t even had to face the silky debating skills of President Obama in the debates yet.

That will be time to roll out the platitudes of the ‘soon to be defeated’.