William Hague may not sink 14 pints of beer tonight but I'd be surprised if the Shadow Foreign Sec didn't take a little 'Dutch' courage before the Tories' conference debate on Europe tomorrow.
The Conservatives have suppressed their anger over Europe for so long now it is unpredictable whether it will emerge or erupt. Of course, they are the only major party in Britain who were genuine when they said they supported a referendum on the Lisbon treaty. And that was because they knew the British public would have given it the traditional two-finger salute. But by the time the Cons form the Government in May or June, it will be a fully ratified Treaty and the legal strait-jacket will be firmly secured.
But they're desperate to vote about something. Bonkers Jonkers acknowledged the pickle they're in to Paxman last night; he may talk of 'consultation' but that is a world away from a national referendum. He certainly has a unique collection of political expressions; only Johnson would describe himself as, "but a toe-nail of the body politic."
Cameron had already suggested to Andrew Marr on Sunday there could be a people's vote on social and employment legislation which, "we're not happy about." Such innocent words. If Britain tried to opt out of the social chapter again or take back provisions on criminal justice matters, it would require all the other EU countries to agree. Why should they?
It's rather like a footballer saying he still wants to play for the club but won't come for training sessions or play away fixtures. It amounts to self-destructive ostracism and is guaranteed to enrage all other parties. Such a referendum would rapidly descend into a question of whether Britain remained in the EU at all. It would entangle the new Conservative Government in a monumental Constitutional crisis in its infancy.
Of course, it is not just high politics and principle which is driving the party to the precipice. The imminent prospect of Anthony Charles Lynton Blair being ordained as first President of the EU Council is abhorrent to every Tory. In fact, it's the only thing they all agree on.
Whoever wins the Presidential vote (by qualified majority voting) should be largely irrelevant if you dispute the entire structural change to the politics. But 'President Blair' is an itch the Tories cannot stop scratching, in fact in speeches it appears to be inextricably tied to the referendum debacle. Boris said last week, "if we are faced with the prospect of Tony Blair suddenly emerging, suddenly pupating into an intergalactic spokesman for Europe, then I think the British people deserve a say."
Blair may assume office as early as 1 January and is odds-on (4/6) to win. Angela Merkel, Nicholas Sarkozy and his old chum Berlusconi want the first incumbent to be a highly prominent figure; when one looks at the other candidates (Juncker, Balkenende) those odds begin to look a bit generous.
If all things were equal, there would be an almighty row at the Manchester Conference tomorrow. Party managers may be able to quell some of the protest and soften the tone. It would be real political theatre to see Norman ' the Polecat' Tebbitt back at the podium, belting out his small-minded, Captain Mainwaring view of the world. I'd like to Cameron smile through that one.
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