Last Lifeboat Leaving

Wednesday's Queen's Speech is the final legislative opportunity for the Labour Government to implement any kind of electoral reform. So, in effect, it is also the last chance to retrieve anything positive from the next election. With the current disproportionate voting system, Labour will certainly be forced to embrace defeat, likely to be somewhere between heavy and catastrophic.

There is plenty of tension within cabinet on reforming the electoral system; Denham, Hain, Bradshaw and Jowell are all signed up to PR. Straw and Balls are the main stick-in-the-muds.

Opinion pollsters, YouGov, carried out some private polling recently which showed if Labour merely promised holding a referendum on electoral reform next year, it could have a dramatic effect on voting patterns. Far from predicting an easy stroll for Cameron, it would put Labour on 287 seats, Cons on 288 and Lib-Dems on 74. Given 18 months of huge Tory leads, any sane PM would jump at the chance of reversing the odds.

Tessa Jowell (above) said last week, it was for Labour to be, "brave enough" to institute change which could be a "game-changer." However, all indicators points to a bravery deficit. After three terms, Governments invariably get more conservative and cautious and feel too nervous about any proposal deemed to be radical. We saw Brown announce at conference last month, a referendum on Alternative Vote next Parliament. In many ways it was a more conservative position than Labour took in 1997 and 2001 when a wider referendum was promised and an electoral victory certain.

A commitment to a more proportional system in response to the expenses scandal would be well received by the public as a political change they could really measure. But at present, no-one is really talking about this issue except at the top of the Labour Party. The campaign for electoral reform 'Vote for a Change' has been lacklustre at best, although it has some presence on-line, there has been precious little coverage in the more traditional media of TV, radio and newspapers.

One can't help feeling this last chance for constructing something of value from the wreckage of Brown's administration is slipping away. Brown is so stymied by fear of criticism, he can't even bring himself reach for an obvious lifeline. What's worse, it may be ten years before we even discuss PR again.