Tuesday 1 December 2009

Peaked too Soon


In the last few days before the 1987 election the Tory strategist, Lord Young really lost it when he saw Labour creeping up in the polls. Such was his degree of panic, he grabbed party chairman, Norman Tebbitt, by the lapels and shouted in his face, “we’re going to lose this f88king election!”

Of course, the Cons strolled to victory with a majority of 102, after Mandelson’s re-branding of Kinnock’s Labour party yielded a measly swing of just 1%.

It may be this episode has a lesson for the General election next year. One would hope, somewhat against hope, there is an intrinsic tendency for the Tory front rank to panic when there are growing doubts about a once assured victory. Cameron’s golden team of feckless yahoos has yet to be put under very much scrutiny let alone pressure by the Government or media, so it’s hard to predict.
The Tories need to maintain a 10 point lead in the polls to achieve a small but workable majority of 40 odd. Recent polling suggests that would be the height of their ambitions. Although no-one is suggesting they won’t be the largest party yet so we should still expect the prospect of PM Cameron.

The slight swerve of the Tory lead downwards remains something of a mystery still but it has coincided with the first series of negative stories about some of their muddled thinking and dubious senior figures. Zac Goldsmith (above) is exactly the sort of cove Cameron wants in Government; bright, charismatic, innovative, green-friendly. He has successfully played down his status as an old Etonian and offspring of Ernst Blofeld double, Sir James Goldsmith.

Although, Zac’s tax position has been publicly available since he became candidate for the Richmond constituency in March 2007, no-one has bothered much to report it. Now suddenly his ‘Non-Dom’ status is of interest to the news media and they cry, with faux shock, about his £200m fortune stashed way in the Cayman Islands . The Cons HQ claimed with 80s style arrogance, his tax affairs were a “private matter.”

Finally the papers are fixing on to this apparent lacuna in coverage and report these obvious flaws with breath-taking hypocrisy, “why have they got away with it so long?” There is still time for the full horror of being ruled by a bunch of millionaire upper crusts to hit home with the electorate. Dave has never had much reason to panic, it would be good if he started now.

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