Say it Ain't So

I think it was about 1.30 on Friday morning when the total of Labour seats declared was 99 and Conservative 98. I remarked to the semi-sober and disgruntled crew around me, in a few moments the Tories would take the lead and it would be a very long time until there was a reverse of the score. At least five years, if not ten.

Although Labour vote held up quite well, the slump of the Lib-Dems back to 2005 level (totally not predicted in this blog) meant dozens of gains for the Cons. Labour voters were prepared to vote tactically for Lib-Dems but that was not reciprocated. The patterns were not very consistent which allowed for ill-advised optimism from the left’s commentators and a very long evening. But so many seats were showing swings of 8-9% it was clearly Cameron’s night.

They don’t seem so pleased with their ‘win’. Senior figures are making clear their undiluted horror at not winning an overall majority. One told the Guardian today. “We were effectively told to shut up because they [Cameron’s inner circle] told us they knew how to win. That hasn’t happened.”

It is not pure sense of entitlement which irks them. Cameron only fell over the line with 36% allowing him to run minority Government or maintain an unwieldy, short-lived coalition with Lib-Dems. Had they won a handful less seats, say 290, then a Labour-Lib Alliance would have been worth 340 so clearly a viable prospect.

But on 315 or so there is no such ‘mandate’ and it could only stumble on for only a few months under the shakiest alliance of SDLP, Green and Plaid. Any referendum on electoral reform would risk being lost especially if Brown were lurking there like a walking cadaver. In any event, there is far from a consensus among Labour MPs this is remotely advisable.

There is nothing else for it but PM Cameron for a few months at least. One thing about the Tories is, they know how to consolidate power. After much frontbench schmoozing with Clegg’s team, only IDS has been honest enough to say the truth on PR, “the Conservative Party simply isn’t interested in changing the electoral system.”

Now they have got this close, they won’t be letting go just yet.

Oh, and bye-bye Gordon.