I have yet to hear one journalist or political analyst claim they had long predicted a wave of revolutionary protest in the Arabic world. What started in Tunisia has swept through several countries in North Africa and the Gulf; it is hard to imagine it would even be possible before the internet.
The violence prior to the overthrow of Mubarak in Egypt was relatively minor given the intransigence of the President and the pivotal role of the army. Mubarak must have been conscious of how violent repression broadcast to the wider would be ultimately self-defeating.
Libyan despot Gaddafi has no such qualms. All foreign journalists are banned and would have a very short life expectancy if they dared enter Libya. The state media promised a "violent and thunderous" response. Murderous would have been a more appropriate description. http://bcc.in.fsecvd/
There are now reports the army have been using mortars on protestors around Benghazi. Hand-held cameras show marchers walking into a hail of bullets.
Whether this erratic dictator is remotely concerned with the reaction from other African countries it is imposible to say. The West has zero leverage, certainly. He overthrew King Idris in 1969 and how the people would yearn for a regime such as that again.
Usually the state propaganda blames "foreign influence" for inspring the protests. Gaddafi has been forced to deploy mercenries to quell the protests killing scores of innocents. One doctor said there 200 bodies at her hospital alone.
Under the threat of a massacre, the people have every right to arm themselves against this brutal unyielding suppression.
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