Margins of Error

“Opinion polls don’t tell the whole story…the only poll that counts is on election day….these polls certainly don’t reflect what the people have been saying to me up and down the land.”

These are all familiar lines used by losing candidates in the run up to their impending electoral defeat. I am not aware of Governor Romney using any of these phrases yet as his national numbers have stood up pretty well until recently. But the party conventions saw a slight widening of the President’s lead so confirming Romney’s lacklustre performance in Tampa and his inability to convince the American public he is worthy of their affection and trust.

But there are some abysmal poll numbers which cannot be explained away with a string of rationalisations. Obama leads Romney on women by about 15 points and Latinos by about 40. The lead among African Americans for the Democratic candidate has strengthened from 2008 when Senator McCain took a measly four points. Obama’s lead is total: 94-0.

Now in Europe there has been some polling about how we would receive a Romney Presidency. First, we in Europe understand 99 percent of the US population ‘could not give a rat’s a**e’ what France, Germany and Britain think and no country would be significantly swayed by an outsider’s view of their own domestic election. Nevertheless, the poll does illustrate how poorly Romney’s public image is playing to a wider audience. The average number in those countries who thought the former Governor would make the US be received more favourably was just four percent.

Romney’s rather dismal effort at diplomacy in his summer tour of UK, Poland and Israel culminated in denigrating the Olympic organisation in London just prior to its huge success. His effort to portray himself as Master of the Olympics showed flaky advice and even worse judgement. His tactless condemnation of Obama following death of the US Ambassador in Libya, without emphasising condolence, may linger disastrously for him.

As the numbers slowly run away from him, he is getting plenty of advice from fellow Republicans. Fox News analyst, Sarah Palin’s suggestion that he get “severely aggressive” with the President seems tactically idiotic. Romney, for all his faults, has got those upper middle class and blue collar white votes solidly in his base. Shouting louder at an audience he has already won over will not win him any more states on 6 November.

Even stirring greater antipathy to the incumbent by another slew of negative campaigning does not mean support transferring to the challenger. Certainly not at this late stage. These would be desperate options for a candidate feeling the pressure. And he hasn’t even had to face the silky debating skills of President Obama in the debates yet.

That will be time to roll out the platitudes of the ‘soon to be defeated’.