The Wrong People

Time is relative, particularly in politics.

In nearly five years, given favourable General Election results for Cameron, there will be a referendum on whether UK remains in the EU. Yet there is no real clarity on where the country will be in 12 months yet, the Tory front bench would have us believe the PM has played a masterstroke which will be paying political dividends way over the political horizon.

Not only do I doubt it, I would suggest the whole phoney edifice of Cameron's tough eurosceptism will unravel before the manifestos are published in Spring 15. The reasons why Dave chose to make his tactical speech were manifold but none of them included personal conviction nor the national interest.

He wanted his speech to sate the hunger of the Minotaur that is his backbench. It won't. Events will change the poltical weather, they will demand more and he won't be able to conjure anything. This is the end game now even if it is half way through the Parliament.

Cameron wanted to kill off the threat of UKIP by this speech. It won't. They are now an established political force with a charismatic and seemingly omnipresent leader (pictured). They will do well in local elections in May and very well in Euro elections a year later.

There are many other issues on which the right of the Tory vote prefer Farage over Cameron such as immigration, law and order and gay marriage. Dave may be tempted to woo their vote further but knows it means for Labour to appear more mainstream, all Ed Milliband has to do is stand still.

The whole issue of the eventual vote depending on the outcome of negotiations lacks the broad message which will be easily digested by the electorate. I can't envisage much uproar on the shop floor and in the pub over the Euro arrest warrant. The unilateral position by Con UK plc is also likely to be easily outflanked by other EU leaders. Why should la belle France, for example, agree to new rules on industrial competition which can only harm its own relative competitiveness? She won't.

The economic "freedom" which the PM is seeking includes the right to work in excess of 48 hours a week. The Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said in a less than convincing display in explaining the detail,  that such restrictions were harming the working of the NHS in his constituency (Richmond, N. Yorks). He was suggesting that staff on the minimum wage would be "free" if they were able to put in ten or twelve hours a day 6 or 7 days a week. Some might call that drudgery.

It all seemed so different when Dave became leader in 2005. He would redefine the "nasty" party, the party which, like the Republicans in the US, was only against things. Hoodies would be hugged, a mature debate on drug reform, an environmental policy meant voting blue equalled turning green, or whatever the slogan was.

The waving of dispatch papers yesterday and ringing endorsement from Douglas Carswell and Liam Fox may make Cameron feel he may yet unite his troops. He won't. And for the voting public he has finally rid himself of those last pesky modernising credentials which made him different in the first place.