Defeat Deferred

It won't be until Sunday evening when we learn the true scale of Labour's humiliation in the European elections. On current polling, fourth place on 15% is a real possibility. For a western democracy, only former Canadian PM, Kim Campbell, would have suffered a more disastrous poll when her Conservative party was reduced from 151 seats to just 2 in the 1993 election.

Brown's prospects look deservedly bleak. He was certain to succeed Tony Blair as PM but such was his control-freakery, he ensured no other candidate would stand against him and build up a power base to rival his chosen successor, Ed Balls. Without any form of election, his tenure has always lacked legitimacy. Like Emperor Napoleon, his Coronation signalled his downfall.

The politics of an unstoppable cabinet rebellion are still finely balanced; the resignations this week from Hazel Blears, Jacqui Smith, Pat Hewitt and Bev Hughes have shown their determination to defy the No.10 machine and leave at their choosing. It is inevitable the resulting cabinet will end up looking as male as Harold Wilson's in the mid-60s, with Harriet Harman taking the Barbara Castle role as the solitary senior female.

But it is another of 'Blair's Babes' who currently holds Brown's fate in her hands. Foreign Office Minister for Europe, Caroline Flint (above), has stoutly defended her friend and ex-Home Office colleague Hazel Blears and when asked if she too would resign her advisers indicated, 'not today.'

If Brown were to see both local Government and European Ministers chuck in the towel as the country were voting in Council and Euro elections, then his position would look impossible. It would be enough to persuade many bankbenchers to break ranks and publicly denounce his leadership.

But Gord's difficulties hardly end there. Alistair Darling seems thoroughly disgruntled to be making way for Brown's 'mini-me' Ed Balls as Chancellor. It is the one Cabinet post Minsters seem unable or unwilling to be demoted from. If we look at the recent residents of No.11 - Brown was promoted to PM; Ken Clarke lost the '97 election anyway; Lamont was plain sacked; Major promoted to PM; Lawson resigned. We have to go back to Geoffrey Howe in 1983 to find the last Chancellor who was shifted. Geoff got Foreign Sec so didn't lose face. Darling's best prospect for a senior post appears to be as Home Sec. Well who wouldn't resign, given that choice?

Brown will press ahead with his re-shuffle on Monday but there promises to be chaotic scenes across Westminster as Ministers weigh up whether they can still lend support to the Party's biggest liability. It's hard to envisage Brown actually resigning, he just doesn't seem the type but then again, neither did La Thatcher.