What it Comes Down To...

"All politics is local," said 'Tip' O'Neill (left) former U.S. House Speaker.

This famous aphorism captures the need for candidates and parties to address the local, at times seemingly trivial, issues affecting voters' daily lives before talking expansively about the national picture.

This simple truism appears to have eluded the hierarchy of the Conservative Party strategists.

Camborne, near Falmouth, is a classic three-way battle. The Conservative candidate, George Eustice was asked by BBC Five Live why the people of Cornwall should elect him and oust Lib-Dem Julia Goldsworthy.

"We need to focus people's minds on the fact that this is a national election, and if they want to change the government, if they really don't want five more years of Gordon Brown, then this is a seat that the Conservatives simply have to win. If we don't win seats like this, we won't get a majority and Gordon Brown will cling to power." Note the absence of any promise to properly represent his constituents' interests.

At the Cons election launch on Tuesday, David Cameron said, "what it comes down to is this...do you want another five years of Gordon Brown?" There was no word about having best candidates and policies, clearly the Tories see their best chance of overall victory as a referendum on Brown.

If it were a Presidential election then Cameron would be the likely winner. But it's not. Elections in UK are about winning seats. The BBC's election calculator is a rather useful toy (work on 'Others' being 8-10%)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm

The clear lesson from tinkering with various scenarios is the Tories have a huge way to go to win an overall majority of one. They really need to hit 40%. Their strategy of focussing on a simple Gordon v. Dave boxing match is not likely to yield a huge surge to them, Brown is unpopular but not irredeemably so. He is considered a bit accident-prone and aggressive but he is not hated in the same way Thatcher or Blair were.

Consequently the Cons are pinning a lot on the TV debates. The format would appear to favour, perhaps, a former PR man turned politician. But that does not mean the voters will warm to Dave and vote accordingly.

The clever dicks at school who won the debating contests would be filled with pride at the audience's applause. But after the clamour died away, they soon rememebered they had no mates.