You Got the Mo'

Naturally, I watched the debate on Thursday evening expecting my hand to reach for the remote in about ten minutes. But it was surprisingly vital and I stuck it out.

Although I recognised Nick Clegg had edged it with superior handling of the event, I really did not expect the huge impact it would have on the polls.

The obvious inference must be, many of the British people are getting to know Clegg for the first time. Such is the pitiful lack of engagement in politics in 2010 Britain. Certainly he is refreshing and speaks with candour on a more human level. Quite a lot of his party's policies seem quite attractive, raising thresholds to £10K and taxing the banks.

His opponents fine tuned their presentational skills pretty well but their ‘performances’ did not resonate with the public at all. When offered the usual choice of chips or mash, the public have shouted "we've had enough of spuds." Clegg would therefore constitute a rather lovely risotto.

The 10 point bounce to the Lib-Dems amounts to the biggest sudden change in the fate of British politics since the death of John Smith in 1994. The enthusiasm for the third party may dwindle a little when people look at their local options. But the emergence of ‘Cleggmania’ is so close to the election the other parties look about as manoeuvrable as a pair of oil tankers.

All they have left is the familiar smear and spin operations which we can discern wins precious little votes and risks back-firing. Michael Gove has already hinted they intend to attack Lib- Dems on "eccentric" policies such as defence. Clegg already stated his position clearly without any hint of apology at the last debate – Trident should be cancelled. Although the voters naturally prefer a robust support of armed services, they may fail to see the sense in prioritising spending £100Bn on a weapons system which will never be used not least because its strategic purpose is to protect us from 'threat' from the Kremlin.

The press, now thoroughly divided down party lines, has attempted a rather tired campaign to attack Senor Clegg. The Sun opted for the rather graceless 'Don't trust Dems'. The worst adjective the Mail could deploy on our Nick was, "multi-lingual" and the Telegraph journos giggled at his fluent Dutch like sad sap schoolboys.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7603945/Nick-Clegg-defends-Liberal-Democrat-stance-on-Europe.html

This desperate political grasping is aimed at preserving the Conservatives' standing at 40% - that prospect looks certainly lost. Labour now has about an evens chance of being the largest party. A Lib-Dem showing in the upper 20s percent would allow Clegg and Cable to expect a place in Cabinet. More importantly the coalition would only have to last long enough for a referendum on electoral reform due by Labour's manifesto for the autumn.

Of course, the Tories' goose would be thoroughly 'bien cuit' by then. It would be fascinating to see the exchanges at Tory HQ now as both Cameron and Osborn experience a decline in their fortunes for the first time in their careers.

Clegg himself summaried it best when he said of the Tory high command, " The overriding sense you get from them is one of entitlement to govern rather than why they want to govern. They dramtically underestimate the British people."